Measuring Timeliness of Outbreak Response in the World Health Organization African Region, 2017–2019

Project information

  • Category: Paper
  • Journal: Emerging Infectious Disease
  • Project date: 05 October, 2020
  • News URL: Here


Large-scale protracted outbreaks can be prevented through early detection, notification, and rapid control. We assessed trends in timeliness of detecting and responding to outbreaks in the African Region reported to the World Health Organization during 2017–2019. We computed the median time to each outbreak milestone and assessed the rates of change over time using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. We selected 296 outbreaks from 348 public reported health events and evaluated 184 for time to detection, 232 for time to notification, and 201 for time to end. Time to detection and end decreased over time, whereas time to notification increased. Multiple factors can account for these findings, including scaling up support to member states after the World Health Organization established its Health Emergencies Programme and support given to countries from donors and partners to strengthen their core capacities for meeting International Health Regulations.

The case for health data regulations

Project information

  • Category: Article
  • Blog: Graduate Institute Geneva
  • Project date: 03 April, 2020
  • News URL: Here


We are in a new era of global technology advancement. The United Nations, World Economic Forum and other international organisations are regularly calling it the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’. Various groups have compared today’s ‘data’ or ‘digital’ revolution, and recently artificial intelligence, in the scale of the inventions of the internet and electricity. As the digital revolution engulfs the health sector as we know it, communities around the world need to be ready. Health research and implementation organisations have to be ready, and above all the World Health Organization (WHO) must be ready for this revolution.

Partnership between WHO/AFRO and us on COVID-19 analyses

Project information

  • Category: Data Analysis
  • Client: WHO Afro
  • Project date: 15 June, 2020
  • Project URL: Here


WHO/AFRO has partnered with us in collaboration with University of Geneva, in the areas of COVID-19 data analyses and reporting. The partnership focuses on the following areas of work: I) Data management; II) Data analysis; and III) Communication and reporting.

Future scenarios for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: an age-structured model [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations]

Project information

  • Category: Research
  • Journal: F1000Research
  • Project date: 25 June, 2020
  • Project URL: Here


The recent lifting of COVID-19 related restrictions in Switzerland causes uncertainty about the future of the epidemic. We developed a compartmental model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland and projected the course of the epidemic until the end of year 2020 under various scenarios. The model was age-structured with three categories: children (0-17), adults (18-64) and seniors (65- years). Lifting all restrictions according to the plans disclosed by the Swiss federal authorities by mid-May resulted in a rapid rebound in the epidemic, with the peak expected in July. Measures equivalent to at least 90% reduction in all contacts were able to eradicate the epidemic; a 56% reduction in contacts could keep the intensive care unit occupancy under the critical level and delay the next wave until October. In scenarios where strong contact reductions were only applied in selected age groups, the epidemic could not be suppressed, resulting in an increased risk of a rebound in July, and another stronger wave in September. Future interventions need to cover all age groups to keep the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic under control.

Machine learning to identify socio-behavioural predictors of HIV positivity in East and Southern Africa

Project information

  • Category: Research
  • Journal: medRxiv
  • Project date: 27 January, 2020
  • Project URL: Here


Background: There is a need for high yield HIV testing strategies to reach epidemic control. We aimed to predict the HIV status of individuals based on socio-behavioural characteristics.

Social, behavioural, and cultural factors of HIV in Malawi: a semi-automated systematic review

Project information

  • Category: Research
  • Journal: medRxiv
  • Project date: 16 March, 2020
  • Project URL: Here


Background: Demographic and socio-behavioural factors are strong drivers of HIV infection rates insub-Saharan Africa. These factors are often studied in qualitative research but ignored inquantitative analyses. However, they provide an in-depth insight into the local behaviour, andmay help to improve HIV prevention

Estimates of the COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate for 48 African Countries: a model-based analysis

Project information

  • Category: Research
  • Journal: SSRN
  • Project date: 10 Augest, 2020
  • Project URL: Here


The infection fatality rate (IFR)is key to determining the effect of the pandemic at population level, as well as the effects of public policies and regulations. We examine global data from 48 African countries to estimate the SARS-CoV-2IFR.